Friendly alt under at 72.2% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, both rungs tied at 72.2% — Under wins on vig-asymmetry research.

Signal

Same lineup gate as ML

Context

MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung

Risk

Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.

Audit trail

Pick ID#717

UUID6acefc8b-8a9d-4fb9-9a43-0f08e3145869

Surfacesharp:MLB

Posted2026-05-13 15:51 UTC

Graded2026-05-13 20:02 UTC

Lineup confirmmlb:824841:2026-05-13T17:05:00Z

ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

Opening hash2fc13dfcaee9b4fa638106b2d88e5d5b4015dcd20900be0c27b3ebe31f307a40

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