Under 8.5
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Edge
Friendly alt under at 59.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, under rung lower-juice (59.3% vs 63.6%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Kansas City Royals12
Tampa Bay Rays5
Winner: Kansas City Royals · 2026-06-23
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-136
1.7353
Closing
-105
1.9524
Delta
-11.12%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1317
UUID29dd19e4-1cd2-42f3-a660-824e78117f02
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-23 21:26 UTC
Graded2026-06-24 01:22 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:822963:2026-06-23T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashbc7976cbacc65b315b4b0159fdbac7e4362f211fce5ccda2005852b2b973a0ee
Closing line-105 captured 2026-06-23 22:42 UTC
CLV delta-11.12%
Closing hash4ce61c84efc906a77fd89ef94007fc2a4d4b62e36cc73190e4ec511d4d8d892e
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger81.2% hashed1,279 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.5% closed1,263 settled picks · 63.5% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public16 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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