Under 10
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins
Edge
Friendly alt under at 63.0% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, both rungs tied at 63.0% — Under wins on vig-asymmetry research.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Dodgers12
Minnesota Twins3
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers · 2026-06-23
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-375
1.2667
Closing
-114
1.8772
Delta
-32.52%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1319
UUIDd570e563-f111-45c5-8810-6b2cd70d4da3
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-23 23:11 UTC
Graded2026-06-24 03:17 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823690:2026-06-23T23:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash71534cb0abb08d839ca7541bef9ce1123292885d1bdb4990564b406ca28d8b75
Closing line-114 captured 2026-06-23 23:42 UTC
CLV delta-32.52%
Closing hash05fcb1c0e71eb82f08cba9381036fc3f053264cada2a4090440b4cbfa02c46f4
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger81.2% hashed1,279 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.5% closed1,263 settled picks · 63.5% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public16 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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