Over 7.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
Edge
Friendly alt over at 60.0% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (60.0% vs 62.3%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung (ref: 8a84de)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Arizona Diamondbacks2
St. Louis Cardinals3
Winner: St. Louis Cardinals · 2026-06-22
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-150
1.6667
Closing
-117
1.8547
Delta
-10.14%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1302
UUID96c871ec-2255-4749-86a5-14cd19d913fa
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-22 23:16 UTC
Graded2026-06-23 02:22 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823040:2026-06-22T23:45:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3b837a925118b517046b3deb86f50533dce3471437faf2df6bb4c427f66f970e
Closing line-117 captured 2026-06-22 23:46 UTC
CLV delta-10.14%
Closing hash286aed4d12ceebaf84d2312a2e326b4f7410b4a75c043fdf6051d9676de5e07f
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger81.9% hashed1,267 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,256 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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