Over 7.5
Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins
Edge
Friendly alt over at 58.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (58.3% vs 64.3%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Texas Rangers4
Miami Marlins6
Winner: Miami Marlins · 2026-06-23
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-120
1.8333
Closing
-105
1.9524
Delta
-6.10%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1316
UUID59adb19f-35d1-4812-81c4-4c1758dc1893
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-23 21:26 UTC
Graded2026-06-24 01:37 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823849:2026-06-23T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc0ee165ac2d1d9763d05d1f8e03dcf0937fcf194cb0c764240e7fa1268d37b9e
Closing line-105 captured 2026-06-23 22:42 UTC
CLV delta-6.10%
Closing hash9bd89f45aa95b8b3cf48123a63db5928d4a39f098de9dbb8ac46c595934b1730
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger81.2% hashed1,279 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.5% closed1,263 settled picks · 63.5% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public16 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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