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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-04🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 9bd02fc9

Daylen Lile Over 0.5 Hits

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

-175risk0.13u→win0.07u
LOSS

Stake

0.13u

Odds

-175

Closing

-159

CLV

-3.53%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 82.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +18.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betrivers)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +18.4pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #8 vs this prop (+6.9% vs league avg over 249 games)
  • Opposing starter Carson Palmquist blowing up: 7.4 ERA over last 3 starts at 2.4 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-175-159+0.06 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-159
1.6289
Delta
-3.53%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1739
UUID721b48d9-9413-4a06-9305-0aff72661447
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-08-04 22:10 UTC
Graded2026-08-05 02:15 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823432:2026-08-04T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9bd02fc9102c7b426dec4bc84df572d007a59fc09c1273107751f498d83cb3ef
Closing line-159 captured 2026-08-04 22:19 UTC
CLV delta-3.53%
Closing hashaad3e171610747ce2f906c0b9faaecc333c2678d04ebfe4adef1a945aff2c7f5

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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