Under 11.5
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds
Edge
Friendly alt under at 71.0% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, under rung lower-juice (71.0% vs 73.7%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Audit trail
Pick ID#723
UUIDcf884e86-e35f-4af1-bb42-dc01998ce428
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-13 21:26 UTC
Graded2026-05-14 02:10 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824519:2026-05-13T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0cf7034f6aee112fd15868b44dac8c23007f9b8c2016d0f7f0a7ce727e3c36db
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