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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1285ac27

A'ja Wilson Over 8.5 Rebounds

New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces

-223risk0.1u→win0.04u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-223

Closing

-228

CLV

+0.68%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 69.0% implied → +11.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-7.7% vs league avg over 82 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-223-228-0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-223
1.4484
Closing
-228
1.4386
Delta
+0.68%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1674
UUID7c4c4a46-0fd2-46a9-b51c-64fbe70cb255
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-30 21:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-31 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1285ac27d35e0d6c6b100198def827b4cae7b1c6ee4a6578663fffc8bc1bb840
Closing line-228 captured 2026-07-31 00:54 UTC
CLV delta+0.68%
Closing hasha0895d3ce7009ba33fd3e83bd21f5790aa9599c3f8332b6561ca05b5cef3c77c

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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