Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 Total Bases
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
Edge
Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +35.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Arizona Diamondbacks3
Atlanta Braves5
Winner: Atlanta Braves · 2026-08-16
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1790
UUID7f8b8bd0-bd9a-4c34-aed1-9fb1b8b87ba7
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-16 14:18 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 16:50 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash59a76225c58096b38b348623385da06b1a454e8a644a276ebf3f8167ba288125
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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