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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-08🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED dcebc800

Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 Hits

Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics

-170risk0.16u→win0.09u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-170

Closing

-225

CLV

+9.95%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +23.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Toronto Blue Jays4
Athletics2
Winner: Toronto Blue Jays · 2026-09-08
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-225
1.4444
Delta
+9.95%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8377
UUID8b1e387c-c8b7-4b77-bd93-46f9774122ae
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-08 20:36 UTC
Graded2026-09-09 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashdcebc800aa4398c129b75aae75d78dd05cbbba201c0edf477813365e84d0256e
Closing line-225 captured 2026-09-09 00:23 UTC
CLV delta+9.95%
Closing hash18f9debbef44a16d16bc5ba119c4912c7b32ea635469f8528339d5d77aa50a3a

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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