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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-08🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 128ee669

Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Total Bases

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants

-167risk0.21u→win0.13u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.21u

Odds

-167

Closing

-165

CLV

-0.45%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 62.5% implied → +30.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betrivers)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
St. Louis Cardinals1
San Francisco Giants2
Winner: San Francisco Giants · 2026-09-08
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-167
1.5988
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
-0.45%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8378
UUIDd7fc3527-0f99-46cd-8363-c1a08b502807
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-08 20:36 UTC
Graded2026-09-09 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash128ee669033fdf28ae69658edbbc980acff74feab5a656947c8dc42e392f5ef0
Closing line-165 captured 2026-09-09 00:23 UTC
CLV delta-0.45%
Closing hashdd3cb973ea83ac4ff5b71e1f1a887a3a39b64c33cdc3f1afb5d8b424194e31e9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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