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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED a9dff1ff

Angel Reese Over 14.5 Points

Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream

-218risk0.1u→win0.05u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-218

Closing

-214

CLV

-0.58%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 68.6% implied → +11.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 6642ea)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.4pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #10 vs this prop (-1.7% vs league avg over 114 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-218-214+0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-218
1.4587
Closing
-214
1.4673
Delta
-0.58%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1536
UUID8a40886e-3f7f-4fac-bead-ead4d67b4d75
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-19 14:18 UTC
Graded2026-07-20 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha9dff1ffed10ba6e76f716516926d726db6dc785e28b7104ddabc4ec8a447218
Closing line-214 captured 2026-07-19 18:40 UTC
CLV delta-0.58%
Closing hash69f5c033b19656eaa218ca70748f12e59cfaff4de5e37acd3582969b6cdcfe04

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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