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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 75e017bf

Matt Chapman Over 0.5 Hits

San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-193

CLV

+6.04%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 75.2% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +13.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
San Francisco Giants7
Atlanta Braves2
Winner: San Francisco Giants · 2026-06-16
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-193
1.5181
Delta
+6.04%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1191
UUID8f6ce9ea-bb10-4281-b69a-a7bad741e350
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-16 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-17 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash75e017bf97d08b4336db43f4b81c2b2144b598e5850481489b904059821819d9
Closing line-193 captured 2026-06-16 21:47 UTC
CLV delta+6.04%
Closing hashf2c9fa9eb77198d5d06d0480f0d275c74e549647ea7ea8d4017db7a86a6316ab

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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