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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 19cba05f

Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists

New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces

-239risk0.25u→win0.1u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.25u

Odds

-239

Closing

-259

CLV

+2.33%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 70.5% implied → +29.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +29.5pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-7.7% vs league avg over 82 games)
  • 100.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-239-259-0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-239
1.4184
Closing
-259
1.3861
Delta
+2.33%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1682
UUIDa034791d-683e-470c-9851-88908e181648
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-30 22:03 UTC
Graded2026-07-31 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash19cba05f019164c334be7b0b27b8f62593334797b559774fe7a45a9879eb8da5
Closing line-259 captured 2026-07-31 00:39 UTC
CLV delta+2.33%
Closing hash303e1620fbd785e8ca13e1eb4582ea002bc3280813842e492c63c202b30bc2e5

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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