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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED a6680938

Vinnie Pasquantino Over 0.5 Hits

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

-200risk0.1u→win0.05u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-200

Closing

-190

CLV

-1.72%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 66.7% implied → +13.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Kansas City Royals2
Minnesota Twins3
Winner: Minnesota Twins · 2026-07-28
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-200
1.5000
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
-1.72%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1594
UUIDad1a110b-814b-404a-8b65-83e229e6499c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-28 20:44 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha6680938ce804249b0bd9a04be9f37b4a96a08d72b9ae4de8742e2ee8f99d231
Closing line-190 captured 2026-07-28 22:19 UTC
CLV delta-1.72%
Closing hashcaa48716a93f3ed54a3aeb28d1fbe8748e9bdc5fe5bd8c4520a1d14d331fe288

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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