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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 8a89dce2

Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

-185risk0.1u→win0.05u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-185

Closing

-185

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 64.9% implied → +18.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: cb621d)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Philadelphia Phillies0
Miami Marlins1
Winner: Miami Marlins · 2026-07-28
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-185
1.5405
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1595
UUIDad5573c5-53c8-491a-ba41-8a16febd0d03
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-28 20:45 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8a89dce26bfc5181c1d86658a2044037a8b8ff452289a3303036bc722673db0e
Closing line-185 captured 2026-07-28 21:23 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash60ffd3e7979530ebe58084a2b7b76fd3c89e54bda1d786b3fdc94ba4b8c1f257

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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