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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-27🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 84514305

Masyn Winn Under 1.5 Total Bases

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

-185risk0.1u→win0.05u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-185

Closing

-185

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 85.4% over last 15 games vs 64.9% implied → +11.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago Cubs7
St. Louis Cardinals3
Winner: Chicago Cubs · 2026-07-27
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
1
Settled
1
Hit rate
0.0%
0-1
ROI
-100.00%
-0.12u
CLV avg
0.00%
n=1
Last 3 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (1 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-185
1.5405
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1569
UUIDc9a9e5a2-19cb-492e-b927-76e09a101497
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-27 20:00 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 20:26 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash845143055c5319295e641c4c7ff32feadb876d517433561eaaf1c8b5bc039aa9
Closing line-185 captured 2026-07-27 22:23 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hasha3de755e103d19c9a11cebfd7165236af8a08c8d8a7f783b96a75d842f1c27ec

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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