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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED aa1ff2e2

Breanna Stewart Over 7.5 Rebounds

New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces

-173risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-173

Closing

-125

CLV

-12.33%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +10.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 33d1dc)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +10.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #9 vs this prop (-2.0% vs league avg over 120 games)
  • 73.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-173-125+0.22 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-173
1.5780
Closing
-125
1.8000
Delta
-12.33%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1287
UUIDcb1c6a1d-8e84-4733-93a1-dada91f12cf8
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-22 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-24 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashaa1ff2e26be33115ef8f27944c2463e0cf68d3f1669367a80c2215f3428b6463
Closing line-125 captured 2026-06-24 02:12 UTC
CLV delta-12.33%
Closing hash211e77274a211fcaae6ce2526d019a39442c5a114c369c85f802911f52d957c2

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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