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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-04🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED d8d54705

James McCann Over 0.5 Hits

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-171risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-171

Closing

-186

CLV

+3.07%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.1% implied → +16.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +16.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #13 vs this prop (-1.4% vs league avg over 237 games)
  • Opposing starter Randy Vásquez blowing up: 6.2 ERA over last 3 starts at 3.9 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-171-186-0.05 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-171
1.5848
Closing
-186
1.5376
Delta
+3.07%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1734
UUIDd0ef8171-d2b5-4c5f-b476-9f2bdb79a21c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-04 20:37 UTC
Graded2026-08-05 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd8d547055f76691b3b6eeded1139253f2ed71bd7a59262216ab02bf4ea9fbc95
Closing line-186 captured 2026-08-05 00:19 UTC
CLV delta+3.07%
Closing hashba95cbb13a296bc515f10bd4af697308abc6866dbd8aaa49e92708e56a3dc8ca

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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