Gabriela Jaquez Over 3.5 Rebounds
Chicago Sky @ Indiana Fever
Edge
Empirical 70.0% over last 10 games vs 62.3% implied → +5.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 10 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +5.2pt EV vs implied
- 70.0% over last 10 games
- Bayesian-shrunk to 67.4%
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1124
UUIDdfdd8cac-1674-4d5d-a798-e03f578b8451
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-11 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-12 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash495794205ad0c152392be4c882e34769a13b07e7d08788602712b16d78e2109c
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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