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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-01🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 8549637d

Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians

-235risk0.1u→win0.04u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-235

Closing

-250

CLV

+1.82%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +15.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: fe10b1)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Arizona Diamondbacks12
Cleveland Guardians8
Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks · 2026-08-01
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-235
1.4255
Closing
-250
1.4000
Delta
+1.82%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1697
UUIDe622fa82-6427-495d-82ce-11a83ea12893
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-01 15:14 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 05:19 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8549637d423666e3721a8c381b3263b5a7ffa73e042948fe7e18e4e148035dd0
Closing line-250 captured 2026-08-01 21:52 UTC
CLV delta+1.82%
Closing hasha0d8468870e11f683637877100714273fb2d0e3200b9bf3213fc270134a19459

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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