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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED c3707f84

Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 Hits

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

-175risk0.18u→win0.1u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.18u

Odds

-175

Closing

-186

CLV

+2.20%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 89.6% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +26.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betrivers)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Houston Astros7
Seattle Mariners0
Winner: Houston Astros · 2026-09-22
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
6
Settled
6
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
-5.75%
-0.04u
CLV avg
+0.22%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (6 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-186
1.5376
Delta
+2.20%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#12537
UUIDecb7c94c-e79c-44a5-aa73-1639b700fd98
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-22 20:38 UTC
Graded2026-09-23 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc3707f847551c91b2ed34c190533ddf84ac386a6f9863a3856d2846ff1760181
Closing line-186 captured 2026-09-23 00:22 UTC
CLV delta+2.20%
Closing hash469da0787685d5256e3e9a37c56ee1493f048f77b48085f879ccecd7aad28e0b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.1% hashed
    1,376 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.8% closed
    1,374 settled picks · 65.8% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public2 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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