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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-25🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 65f2d191

Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Hits

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers

-176risk0.15u→win0.09u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-176

Closing

-175

CLV

-0.21%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 84.9% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +21.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Pittsburgh Pirates7
Detroit Tigers8
Winner: Detroit Tigers · 2026-09-25
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
6
Settled
6
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
-5.75%
-0.04u
CLV avg
+0.22%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (6 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
-0.21%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#13169
UUIDf9f59007-425b-40ae-ab84-d14a34b8392c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-25 18:07 UTC
Graded2026-09-26 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash65f2d1919f4853720157b8e35016389a6908693d4a453982e77ac616dc525fa2
Closing line-175 captured 2026-09-25 21:22 UTC
CLV delta-0.21%
Closing hash0785e0c2c0b217fbe99de0225671af7296e4cece8c013e7f0b75b86f3f909483

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.1% hashed
    1,376 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.8% closed
    1,374 settled picks · 65.8% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public2 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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