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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED ae202393

Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM

Name: NuroPicks
Availability: InStock
Author: NuroPicks LLC

Indiana Fever @ Atlanta Dream

-170risk0.22u→win0.13u

LOSS

ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-170

Closing

-177

CLV

+1.49%

Source

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time

Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +36.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

⊞Game context

Context signals

+36.0pt EV vs implied
Opp ranks #7 vs this prop (+6.6% vs league avg over 58 games)
100.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-170-177-0.02 dec

◯Model Record (30d)

prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window

Picks

4

Settled

4

Hit rate

75.0%

3-1

ROI

+17.93%

+0.16u

CLV avg

-0.82%

n=4

Last 20 settled · cumulative units

ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.

◢Related Picks (15)

Same team (7d)

WDeWanna Bonner Over 3.5 Rebounds@ -1692026-09-17 WErica Wheeler Over 7.5 Points@ -1632026-08-20 LChelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists@ -1702026-08-18 WKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1782026-08-11 WKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1752026-08-08 LKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1792026-08-06 WKelsey Plum Over 14.5 Points@ -1642026-08-05 WKelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points@ -1922026-08-02 WKelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points@ -2422026-07-31 WJordin Canada Under 1.5 3PM@ -2452026-07-29

Same model

WDaniel Lynch Under 3.5 Strikeouts@ -1802026-09-16 WTaylor Ward Under 1.5 Total Bases@ -1802026-09-11 LCam Smith Under 0.5 batter_singles@ -1752026-09-02 WDillon Dingler Under 0.5 Runs Scored@ -1652026-08-31 WXavier Edwards Under 0.5 Runs Scored@ -1752026-08-13

CLV math

Posted

-170

1.5882

Closing

-177

1.5650

Delta

+1.49%

posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1787

UUID0a8aa213-4180-440d-96c4-ba873817eebe

Surfaceprop-slate-daily

Posted2026-08-16 14:18 UTC

Graded2026-08-17 00:15 UTC

ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

Opening hashae20239370137fe0423cf24c0c88ffa89447ca5800eaffc04d1d6961cde5e780

Closing line-177 captured 2026-08-16 19:39 UTC

CLV delta+1.49%

Closing hash79da7021205116a65ef2794b640f708adbca373fbde9b6aab6a5b3e40b9a8054

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Why this receipt is trustable

Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
Graded against close63.6% closed
1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
Every pick public9 pending
Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.

Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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