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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 5dd400ff

Marina Mabrey Over 17.5 Points

Minnesota Lynx @ TOR Tempo

-222risk0.1u→win0.05u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-222

Closing

-221

CLV

-0.14%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 68.9% implied → +11.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: c0fec3)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (-2.6% vs league avg over 87 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-222-221+0.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-222
1.4505
Closing
-221
1.4525
Delta
-0.14%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1675
UUID0e482cac-b746-4521-bc0a-bbacc0079ec7
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-30 21:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-31 03:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5dd400ff0325ef960dc97e2bb5fa121dce91d01c380e3a88986b00a1cbb5bbe0
Closing line-221 captured 2026-07-30 22:54 UTC
CLV delta-0.14%
Closing hash52fb11a5a179f00dcfe8d74de3952496f87238533e7475ea61769f8d9c79194e

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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