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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 10187654

Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 Hits

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

-180risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-180

Closing

-175

CLV

-1.01%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 75.2% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +10.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +10.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #8 vs this prop (+6.1% vs league avg over 294 games)
  • Opposing starter Jake Irvin blowing up: 7.6 ERA over last 3 starts at 4.3 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-180-175+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
-1.01%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1021
UUID712d90ec-e946-4730-bd9c-1a188d0a0fa7
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-23 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-24 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash10187654a1a9ff89f54a2554eb6ea468b293fa11fa38d7987266031fcc57d54c
Closing line-175 captured 2026-05-23 20:32 UTC
CLV delta-1.01%
Closing hashe5222f03266b6b7717ae1b2341186ea6224bca126449ed30765f040d7e6aeb4f

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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