Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 9567efd1

Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Hits

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-154

CLV

-2.62%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 96.5% over last 5 games vs 62.3% implied → +11.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.4pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (+1.8% vs league avg over 284 games)
  • 96.5% over last 5 games

Line movement

-165-154+0.04 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-154
1.6494
Delta
-2.62%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1024
UUID00791c66-1095-499d-98b5-0ca3a98adbb5
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-23 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-24 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9567efd193894cdf3979c57e1c802830d98d1abe1e862848eddef740a8818103
Closing line-154 captured 2026-05-23 20:32 UTC
CLV delta-2.62%
Closing hashd425552b1b2ebc31e43396c9c5b4d82488a3e789874dfeb3d8b010948ed3c5f8

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801