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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-27🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1c9041b8

Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Hits

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets

-164risk0.15u→win0.09u
WIN

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-164

Closing

-159

CLV

-1.18%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 84.5% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +22.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +22.4pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #8 vs this prop (+4.1% vs league avg over 276 games)
  • 84.5% over last 15 games

Line movement

-164-159+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-159
1.6289
Delta
-1.18%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1059
UUID6bb82575-3eb5-4e66-91c9-c8461416ff23
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-27 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-28 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1c9041b81c0fc0c720dc76613a43396bd340b5a07ce8bc893d4d699a21b76214
Closing line-159 captured 2026-05-27 21:42 UTC
CLV delta-1.18%
Closing hasha02ecf9f693daf70dd5046c380e21a5d69155c51a1a4442545532f147b2dc8ef

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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