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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-27🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED b6fec055

Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 Total Bases

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-173

CLV

+1.78%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.8% over last 5 games vs 62.3% implied → +6.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +6.2pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #13 vs this prop (+0.5% vs league avg over 278 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Rate Field: 15 mph wind blowing IN (NNE): ball suppressed, fade HR overs.

Line movement

-165-173-0.03 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-173
1.5780
Delta
+1.78%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1060
UUID058e7d5c-b5a8-4baa-a29a-b5e3d25b85e6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-27 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-28 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb6fec055343b8825788dea1d2b1f207fe5bd756097fe564595f32680b2c309c6
Closing line-173 captured 2026-05-27 22:12 UTC
CLV delta+1.78%
Closing hash7b96b19b786daf171d29478c22e185dac70cf60cf6a524debca3585f631d9086

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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