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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 5462a13f

Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Hits

Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds

-164risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-164

Closing

-170

CLV

+1.36%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 7 games vs 62.1% implied → +17.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 7 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.6pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #10 vs this prop (+3.1% vs league avg over 274 games)
  • Opposing starter Chris Paddack blowing up: 6.3 ERA over last 3 starts at 4.8 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-164-170-0.02 dec
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
+1.36%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1070
UUID1a5ba08c-1dc6-4c17-83a5-98f758af998d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-29 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-30 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5462a13fcb0ad9fa26188c62fb9d9aac81f63ca3bae4db21c2b17ff4c8cc8e94
Closing line-170 captured 2026-05-29 21:11 UTC
CLV delta+1.36%
Closing hasha4b77ae4a5e93be5fa7284de7a6fa4088467e5534efd54e50b59dcfabcc4036a

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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