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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 9e8b4eb7

Jake Bauers Over 0.5 Total Bases

Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros

-165risk0.16u→win0.1u
LOSS

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-165

Closing

-154

CLV

-2.62%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.2% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +24.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics) (ref: ffd412)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +24.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #30 vs this prop (-18.6% vs league avg over 263 games)
  • 86.2% over last 15 games

Line movement

-165-154+0.04 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-154
1.6494
Delta
-2.62%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1074
UUIDe22d8ec3-cd93-46fb-b46d-1ff42bdb66a5
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-29 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-30 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9e8b4eb7749def09e08da92e56f106a57a16e8f0fecb6018cfbfd11050c5852e
Closing line-154 captured 2026-05-29 22:41 UTC
CLV delta-2.62%
Closing hash8a7badedcbd879842d3512a8c30bb9187a2f616d11c8fb0bc7b4e94d804f1701

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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