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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED c2c5e53e

Jac Caglianone Over 0.5 Hits

Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds

-166risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-166

Closing

-163

CLV

-0.69%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 69.7% over last 15 games vs 62.4% implied → +7.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +7.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #19 vs this prop (-3.9% vs league avg over 272 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Great American Ball Park: 10 mph wind blowing IN (NE): ball suppressed, fade HR overs.

Line movement

-166-163+0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-166
1.6024
Closing
-163
1.6135
Delta
-0.69%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1099
UUIDf1730e7e-430e-492f-9f72-c92c9bcaea8f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-02 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-03 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc2c5e53ed9f9c9e777a9422119e0ab287c29550eb0f73af03c8299fcc57052cb
Closing line-163 captured 2026-06-02 21:40 UTC
CLV delta-0.69%
Closing hashfece72ddca83d2e8a896ffda54aaab028b42e0334fb3c2b66b62facb234e8aa6

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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