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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED da426045

Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Total Bases

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-180risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-180

Closing

-160

CLV

-4.27%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +15.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +15.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #22 vs this prop (-5.7% vs league avg over 280 games)
  • Opposing starter Zac Gallen blowing up: 9.3 ERA over last 3 starts at 3.6 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-180-160+0.07 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-4.27%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1119
UUID296e9739-3a74-497f-bd7b-fbd155a254c1
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-03 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-04 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashda426045c17563f7ebb82043e59bf58677721dee389a55b86938f5b225e9d35c
Closing line-160 captured 2026-06-04 00:11 UTC
CLV delta-4.27%
Closing hash2d4b42fc3401777b80d18694c064575d255f4cb131b63f78d2e292fb57939d60

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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