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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED a8864b58

Justin Crawford Over 0.5 Hits

San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-177

CLV

+2.63%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 82.0% over last 5 games vs 62.3% implied → +6.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +6.6pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #24 vs this prop (-7.5% vs league avg over 268 games)
  • 82.0% over last 5 games

Line movement

-165-177-0.04 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-177
1.5650
Delta
+2.63%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1112
UUIDb593181c-a8b9-4fc2-88d7-b0127acb6ead
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-03 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-04 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha8864b5820b52061b2041a830624e0da907cbfc6205decf52c487b6e1fd29504
Closing line-177 captured 2026-06-03 21:11 UTC
CLV delta+2.63%
Closing hashb9f13c18a294ae2d09a3036ff962f6c8a4345d50581ca01a184a2f3114777f07

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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