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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED afd69410

Salvador Perez Over 0.5 Hits

Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-182

CLV

+3.89%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 87.1% over last 6 games vs 62.1% implied → +10.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +10.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #6 vs this prop (+10.9% vs league avg over 286 games)
  • 87.1% over last 6 games

Line movement

-164-182-0.06 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-182
1.5495
Delta
+3.89%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1115
UUID3d3db8e1-b95e-4c80-9157-09d2abc335da
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-03 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-04 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashafd6941040358af46099eddbc2614d7c519fc40828069283fa704d4b98b41d82
Closing line-182 captured 2026-06-03 21:41 UTC
CLV delta+3.89%
Closing hash3c6bf72a2c7ffe9f76b60965e9b83bdc9246fbe8b13d7af3c15b096b90411ce9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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