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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6dd2b6b1

Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Hits

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

-179risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-179

Closing

-220

CLV

+7.16%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 82.0% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +17.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.8pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (+2.9% vs league avg over 276 games)
  • 82.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-179-220-0.10 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-220
1.4545
Delta
+7.16%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1113
UUIDdab206cb-16c5-46c9-8959-d7b50ff48ae4
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-03 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-04 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6dd2b6b1f395838d6a3637ee71c809f7305c387d2a7929ada884f1b52dc55bcf
Closing line-220 captured 2026-06-03 21:17 UTC
CLV delta+7.16%
Closing hash14928fd11c91a31629863f140c9a25cf206b78844971418e65fadabc0ed53b80

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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