Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 Hits
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees
-175risk0.1u→win0.06uPENDING
Edge
Empirical 99.9% over last 5 games vs 63.6% implied → +12.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: c9a1b0)
Risk
Game context
Context signals
- +12.1pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #20 vs this prop (-4.3% vs league avg over 277 games)
- 99.9% over last 5 games
Line movement
-175-215-0.11 decModel Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
19
Hit rate
63.2%
12-7
ROI
-1.20%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+1.72%
n=16
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
CLV math
Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-215
1.4651
Delta
+7.26%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1114
UUID210d4c59-c08a-43a5-a5ff-8dd7599abe76
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-03 20:32 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash00dc61d733e84b92ebf1c22f8f9b95fa375f821090b669270d6d828bc96fc467
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger100% hashed931 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close38.1% closed911 settled picks · 38.1% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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