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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 00dc61d7

Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-215

CLV

+7.26%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 5 games vs 63.6% implied → +12.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: c9a1b0)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +12.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #20 vs this prop (-4.3% vs league avg over 277 games)
  • 99.9% over last 5 games

Line movement

-175-215-0.11 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-215
1.4651
Delta
+7.26%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1114
UUID210d4c59-c08a-43a5-a5ff-8dd7599abe76
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-03 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-04 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash00dc61d733e84b92ebf1c22f8f9b95fa375f821090b669270d6d828bc96fc467
Closing line-215 captured 2026-06-03 21:37 UTC
CLV delta+7.26%
Closing hash020074e0629966e32694c8b30f8f8c83cf5a0aa4ae53dd6465154293fdeed812

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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