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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 922e5207

Max Clark Over 0.5 Hits

Detroit Tigers @ CHI White Sox

-175risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-175

Closing

-159

CLV

-3.53%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.8% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +17.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Detroit Tigers11
Chicago White Sox8
Winner: Detroit Tigers · 2026-09-18
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
25
Settled
24
Hit rate
66.7%
16-8
ROI
+3.44%
+0.12u
CLV avg
+0.47%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (24 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-159
1.6289
Delta
-3.53%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#11327
UUID01e2c0c0-f379-4b72-a4b6-7b10accecc9c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-18 20:43 UTC
Graded2026-09-19 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash922e5207cb2725b478ed91bf085f0d53af3dcccd7371458cbb0d09ca8e97c472
Closing line-159 captured 2026-09-18 22:22 UTC
CLV delta-3.53%
Closing hash32756f0afc7545d6774128d4cd5d4983e959a1492eaeae8a34b362450f9e6425

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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