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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-12🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 8f283785

Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Hits

Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-124

CLV

-13.01%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.5% over last 5 games vs 63.6% implied → +12.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Philadelphia Phillies0
Milwaukee Brewers6
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-06-12
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-124
1.8065
Delta
-13.01%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1143
UUIDbbaeaee6-c4da-4663-80df-69dd94199bfb
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-12 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-13 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8f283785f6b5a885feaa2e6b4904325ef1b2868ba665d372d0d83702e9ccb5d8
Closing line-124 captured 2026-06-12 22:11 UTC
CLV delta-13.01%
Closing hashce4c420086a77be91f5d54c2682d99f5fb2690aecbec134901778e635ea41cc3

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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