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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 798b9ea6

Natasha Howard Over 9.5 Points

Minnesota Lynx @ Golden State Valkyries

-175risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-175

Closing

-179

CLV

+0.82%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +16.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +16.4pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #10 vs this prop (-1.0% vs league avg over 26 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-175-179-0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-179
1.5587
Delta
+0.82%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1812
UUID114cbfdb-bf50-43b0-bf58-3242411ac196
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-19 21:34 UTC
Graded2026-08-20 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash798b9ea6f841de2e5cbd2b3cbcf11387f4efa9d958b7146c19505126d448d2e6
Closing line-179 captured 2026-08-20 00:42 UTC
CLV delta+0.82%
Closing hashfb8bbcb4e6df248f91c2bc97a7aca60638ead09d3b58b423e6386fc144bce061

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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