Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 Hits
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
Edge
Empirical 97.5% over last 5 games vs 63.6% implied → +11.3pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Final · Grading detail
Atlanta Braves3
New York Mets1
Winner: Atlanta Braves · 2026-06-13
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+2.01%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1158
UUID61bd2f10-208c-4a9e-ba6c-f4fdb5fdcbb6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-14 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1ead850225e4516ca3d5c679eee189a09c09177d94c525fbc5b46ebea2554231
Closing line-185 captured 2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
CLV delta+2.01%
Closing hash24d1cdb4605f0c8f182bb43529b0380523d9e99bcacef7907da6f26febc19762
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Why this receipt is trustable
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