Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Hits
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Edge
Empirical 99.0% over last 5 games vs 63.0% implied → +12.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Final · Grading detail
Miami Marlins2
Pittsburgh Pirates3
Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates · 2026-06-13
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
-1.11%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1156
UUIDdc8eecb7-15fa-4b25-ad12-d4e702a2290d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-14 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe5e05469ca5da78c73e332f71da524be02242d7f0590b57535629d9ce69a96e4
Closing line-165 captured 2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
CLV delta-1.11%
Closing hash667fea5e2db0b29cb5f21cc5b0682b88735cb1df01f7dd4281bc9a6cce779368
Share this receipt
Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).
NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801