Natasha Howard Over 13.5 Points
Minnesota Lynx @ Golden State Valkyries
Edge
Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +9.7pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics) (ref: 21436c)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +9.7pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #8 vs this prop (-1.4% vs league avg over 119 games)
- 73.3% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
16
Hit rate
50.0%
8-8
ROI
-24.70%
-0.58u
CLV avg
+1.72%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1211
UUID8e4d3c4b-6974-4b9c-bb15-e1315f3a8d51
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-18 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf04f6cca850f19aca70950513bf48f28f3c0e619e1728bf5db56f640211df596
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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