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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-17🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4c12d21f

Gage Jump Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Washington Nationals @ Athletics

-169risk0.1u→win0.06uVOIDESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-169

Closing

-184

CLV

+3.13%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 75.8% over last 9 games vs 62.8% implied → +7.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 72c14a)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 9 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Final · Grading detail
Washington Nationals23
Athletics4
Winner: Washington Nationals · 2026-07-17
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-169
1.5917
Closing
-184
1.5435
Delta
+3.13%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1418
UUID1250dbcc-11ab-4c12-aea8-7bcb6320f580
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-17 21:09 UTC
Graded2026-07-18 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4c12d21f662d287263c74b4b416b02ea81477ceffdfb53038902f9a4cb490389
Closing line-184 captured 2026-07-18 00:24 UTC
CLV delta+3.13%
Closing hash423648b106a7421e9e1afdfee1dde8e7fafdb73a50623a56d94dee0ccb4c9a35

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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