Sophie Cunningham Over 7.5 Points
Phoenix Mercury @ Indiana Fever
Edge
Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +11.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +11.1pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #6 vs this prop (+0.3% vs league avg over 111 games)
- 73.3% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
16
Hit rate
50.0%
8-8
ROI
-24.70%
-0.58u
CLV avg
+1.72%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1276
UUID2b915f0a-3a8c-452d-af8e-9b86f69d7557
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-21 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-06-23 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha62ac1ead6b7d78ea672c53d6ab5426641430738dfb3900b09c9ba0fcdc96a0e
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Why this receipt is trustable
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