Tampa Bay Rays -1
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 57.4% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Tampa Bay Rays → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Kansas City Royals12
Tampa Bay Rays5
Winner: Kansas City Royals · 2026-06-23
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-135
1.7407
Closing
+119
2.1900
Delta
-20.51%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1315
UUID0301f901-09a5-4bf6-b599-eeb8f16fb7d0
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-23 21:26 UTC
Graded2026-06-24 01:17 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:822963:2026-06-23T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash07f23b10a6957c8d501112b212e515ad57bbaff4bcc0fc77d8203dd530687f36
Closing line+119 captured 2026-06-23 22:42 UTC
CLV delta-20.51%
Closing hash4d07d5b7398cac22d5a50708a7618fe2425ef16871c19a3000a8edf1cab5957d
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger81.2% hashed1,279 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.5% closed1,263 settled picks · 63.5% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public16 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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