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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-18◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED af051728

Wyatt Langford Over 0.5 Hits

Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves

-242risk0.14u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.14u

Odds

-242

Closing

-240

CLV

-0.24%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 70.8% implied → +15.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Texas Rangers7
Atlanta Braves6
Winner: Texas Rangers · 2026-07-18
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-242
1.4132
Closing
-240
1.4167
Delta
-0.24%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1428
UUID34856829-96e5-4cb1-996b-f14aa0a06758
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-18 15:12 UTC
Graded2026-07-19 02:16 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashaf05172834c2a94936ea6e476acffb9917e2a3ded9dbf2449890de40a0c76e97
Closing line-240 captured 2026-07-18 18:44 UTC
CLV delta-0.24%
Closing hash9f3e1cad8d087ef50b689b15096d08afc5bd4854db18e82bd1ebb59a8171d6b1

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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