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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1b88d757

Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 Hits

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians

-206risk0.14u→win0.07u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.14u

Odds

-206

Closing

-212

CLV

+0.93%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.2% over last 15 games vs 67.3% implied → +18.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 8eabd8)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Pittsburgh Pirates7
Cleveland Guardians1
Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates · 2026-07-18
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
2
Settled
2
Hit rate
100.0%
2-0
ROI
+57.26%
+0.17u
CLV avg
-0.31%
n=2
Last 6 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (2 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-206
1.4854
Closing
-212
1.4717
Delta
+0.93%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1434
UUID9b3c8571-ecef-4df8-94cb-85e9e79752a0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-18 15:19 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 20:26 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1b88d75796704a3b4398043384c5392affb84b1c29a012ed8ccf01c8da20533f
Closing line-212 captured 2026-07-18 21:43 UTC
CLV delta+0.93%
Closing hash3068772e51db36426eb5f5a5919db0d8518b510ead32baaa02c5013950994cac

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,127 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public10 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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