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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-18💎Elite◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 442953fb

Liam Hicks Over 0.5 Hits

Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers

-171risk0.16u→win0.09u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-171

Closing

-154

CLV

-3.91%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 63.1% implied → +23.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Miami Marlins6
Milwaukee Brewers8
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-07-18
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-171
1.5848
Closing
-154
1.6494
Delta
-3.91%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1429
UUID4335a512-9117-4f6c-b80c-a513b32914cf
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-18 15:12 UTC
Graded2026-07-19 02:16 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash442953fb425c5eeb8f5101ce153341d320af8b7f1962742bfa74484af6cec954
Closing line-154 captured 2026-07-18 18:44 UTC
CLV delta-3.91%
Closing hash4263c13c73b8ea139cb6388f5dd9246c063732bce404d8b8de762173132fdf51

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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