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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-04🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e004448f

Max Fried Over 3.5 Strikeouts

NY Yankees @ San Diego Padres

-177risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-177

Closing

-174

CLV

-0.62%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 82.3% over last 14 games vs 63.9% implied → +17.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 14 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
New York Yankees2
San Diego Padres3
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-09-04
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
2
Settled
2
Hit rate
100.0%
2-0
ROI
+57.26%
+0.17u
CLV avg
-0.31%
n=2
Last 6 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (2 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-177
1.5650
Closing
-174
1.5747
Delta
-0.62%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#7305
UUID64421535-3afc-4e68-9bf7-3ba11cfcea2f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-04 20:11 UTC
Graded2026-09-05 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe004448f1dd020e4436b0e25f5574498fddb8001ca5c3c34a6e4953809bcf244
Closing line-174 captured 2026-09-05 00:23 UTC
CLV delta-0.62%
Closing hash11a71ca0ee3bbad9633e40ac66bcf22653465b80de1a747c11e1ebc4fbbd52eb

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.8% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.8% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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